India's capability centers
A whole organizational form replacing another, in about three years.
NASSCOM Strategic Review
FY2025
Kotak Institutional Equities estimate on revenue at risk from pricing deflation
2025
Indian business press reporting on fresher hiring decline
2024 to 2026
Global capability centers now employ over 500,000 professionals in India and, per NASSCOM's FY2025 review, account for roughly half of the country's technology export revenue. They hold outcomes rather than sell hours, which is a different operating model from the services pyramid they are displacing.
The pyramid's decline is the counterpart: fresher hiring reported down roughly 75 percent from its FY2022-23 peak, with analyst estimates putting over 10 billion dollars of annual Indian IT revenue at risk from AI-driven pricing deflation. It anchors the Capability Center pattern, currently a draft awaiting an author who has worked inside one.
What is owned, what is rented, and what is summoned only when needed?
For each workflow, what is the human to agent ratio, and who signs the quality baseline?
What orients a person and an agent when neither can see the whole system?