Megaproject overrun research
Large projects run over, predictably, and first-of-kind run over worst.
Bent Flyvbjerg, megaproject cost and schedule overrun studies, University of Oxford
multiple, 2003 onward
Bent Flyvbjerg's Oxford research across hundreds of large projects finds systematic cost and schedule overrun, averaging around 28 percent on road projects and 45 percent on rail, and worse for projects that have never been built before.
Included as the base rate against which any giga-project or first-of-kind transformation should be read, agentic operating model programs included. It is the empirical answer to the Purpose cell's ambition problem.
What orients a person and an agent when neither can see the whole system?
Where on the evolution curve does each capability sit, and does that dictate build, buy, or let go?