NEOM and The Line
A purpose stated at a scale nobody could deliver.
Bloomberg, reporting on The Line's revised population and construction targets
April 2024
Public Investment Fund disclosures on giga-project writedowns
financial year 2024
Bent Flyvbjerg, Oxford megaproject cost and schedule research
multiple studies
Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 giga-projects run as standalone project companies with the Public Investment Fund as anchor shareholder. The Line, a linear city, had its 2030 population target reduced from 1.5 million to roughly 300,000, and its planned opening segment cut from 170 kilometres to about 2.4. The Public Investment Fund disclosed roughly 8 billion dollars in giga-project writedowns for 2024, and the finance minister said publicly that projects could be deferred or canceled.
It is the Purpose cell's failure case not because ambition is wrong but because a purpose no unit can act on is indistinguishable from no purpose. It is also consistent with decades of megaproject research showing systematic overrun, worst on projects that have never been built before.
What orients a person and an agent when neither can see the whole system?
Where on the evolution curve does each capability sit, and does that dictate build, buy, or let go?
What is owned, what is rented, and what is summoned only when needed?